NFL Betting Week 4
The ratings are starting to take shape as we hit approach the first quarter of the NFL season. Our first losing week last week at 2-3, though we're still showing a minor profit thus far.
The Power Ratings are showing some movement this week as we enter Week 4 in the NFL. I’ll be honest, it felt good going into MNF with the Bucs as we sought another plus week. Come 8:45 PM on Monday, though, we knew it wasn’t meant to be.
We look to have a bounce-back week here and show some signs of life, unlike the Chicago Bears and both teams from New York. Yikes.
Here are the games we’re targeting this week.
Miami Dolphins (+3) at Buffalo Bills
Miami is the hottest team in the league. A juggernaut that cannot be stopped. On the surface, that’s what it seems like. Buffalo, however, has looked just as dominant after shaking off the Week 1 loss to the Jets.
Something’s got to give between the top two teams in my ratings. Overall, Buffalo is the more complete team with a stronger defense and a competent offense. Miami’s offensive rating is probably a bit inflated, given their absolute beat down of the Broncos last week.
That said, the Dolphins might be one of the fastest, most dynamic offenses we’ve seen in recent memory. My ratings have Miami giving a point, so if you’re giving me 3, I’m going to take it, even if it’s on the road against a tough team in Buffalo.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans (+3)
Two teams at the back half of my ratings. The Steelers haven’t looked all that good so far, but neither have the Texans.
Home underdogs is an angle I typically like to explore. The matchup I want to focus on here is the Steeler defense and Houston’s 3rd down offense.
Pittsburgh has been decent enough on defense, and Houston has been able to move the sticks at a decent clip on third down. The winner of that matchup, I think, wins this game. My ratings had this at a pick’em so I’ll gladly take the points with a home dog between two teams that aren’t all that great right now.
Minnesota Vikings (-4) at Carolina Panthers
Minnesota’s offense is too good to be 0-3, right? They’re averaging over 6 yards per play, are above average on third down, and rarely go three-and-out.
Carolina hasn’t shown all that much yet this season. My rating has the Vikings as 5-point favorites, so we’ll give the 4 as we do see a touch of value there, especially when we compare the offenses.
Carolina is near the bottom in overall offensive efficiency, third down success, and, more often than not, they’re not staying on the field very long.
Arizona Cardinals (+14) at San Francisco 49ers
Two TD favorites in the NFL? That just feels high. From the “eye test” Arizona hasn’t looked as bad as almost everyone expected. They’ve been competitive and even took down a Super Bowl contender last week in the Cowboys.
The 49ers beat up the Giants, yes, but Brock Purdy looked vulnerable. He had plenty of inaccurate passes. My ratings gave San Francisco a 4-point edge, so certainly a lot tighter than this 14-point spread.
Arizona has an above-average offense and averages just shy of 6 yards per play, which is near the top of the league. This game will be more competitive than people think.
Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) at New York Giants
The Giants have been thoroughly embarrassed for 10 out of 12 quarters so far this year. Seattle, on the other hand, has looked decent.
I was impressed with their win over Detroit. However, coming East doesn’t often bode well for West Coast teams, so it’s worth factoring that in.
They’re better than the Giants, though. My ratings have this at a 12-point game in the other direction, so I’m happy to take Seattle getting points. The Giants have a lot of questions on offense and few playmakers. The defense has underperformed, too.
Perhaps the Giants respond by being back at home, but I’ll need them to prove it to me first, especially with such a discrepancy in the spread according to my ratings.
Conclusion
We’re 8-6 overall on the season, up a single unit after last week. Let’s get three of these home!