NFL Betting Week 3
A profitable week last time out. We have a few plays for Sunday and a stat you can work to your advantage
Back in action for Week 3 in the NFL! Let’s quickly recap Week 2… we went 3-2, up a few dollars. It would have been better had the Green Bay Packers not turned completely invisible in the second half against Atlanta. Nevertheless, we press on.
Week 3 Power Rankings
Week 3 Plays
I’m watching the Giants get unlucky on TNF as I write this. This game was anywhere between 10.5 and 11 points in favor of San Francisco. My ratings put SF as an 18 point favorite, so this game was a stay-away for me.
The Giants just scored a TD but failed to convert the 2 pt attempt. Competitive game so far despite the bounces going against the G-Men so far.
Here are the five games I’ll be targeting for Week 3.
Buffalo at Washington +6.5
Buffalo got its first win of the season last week against the Las Vegas Raiders. What we saw in Week 1 was a Buffalo team struggle against a top-flight defense with the New York Jets.
Washington is fairly stout on defense, and I expect this to be a tight game. In fact, the Commanders have a stronger defense than the Jets, according to my model. I’ll hold out until Sunday morning before placing this bet, hoping we get +7, but my ratings put this game a heck of a lot closer at just +1 to Washington.
New Orleans at Green Bay -2
Perhaps I’m just a glutton for punishment, but I’m going back to the well with Green Bay. They let me down last week, but I’m giving them a chance for redemption.
My ratings give Green Bay a significant edge on defense. The offensive metrics are largely the same, so we’ll look again to Jordan Love to make plays and cover the spread.
My model has Green Bay as a 7-point favorite, so only having to give up less than a field goal presents a fair amount of value.
Tennessee at Cleveland -3.5
Like they say in horse racing, bet the value. My ratings, for whatever reason, love the Cleveland Browns. I’ve got them down with a 17-point edge against the Titans this week, so only having to give up 3.5 appears to be a gift.
That said, I’ll hold out to see if the line drops a bit more toward Tennessee and we lose the half-point hook on a field goal.
To be fair, I’m sure my model is inflating Cleveland a bit off its Week 1 domination of the Cincinnati Bengals. So we’ll see how things smooth out over the next few weeks. Regardless, I still think Cleveland is at least a field goal better than Tennessee.
Houston at Jacksonville -8.5
The Jaguars are giving 8.5 points at home against a divisional opponent. That feels a tad high, so we’ll how the line moves leading up to kickoff.
However, my ratings have Houston as one of the worst statistical teams in the league, whereas the Jaguars have been largely middle of the road after two weeks.
My model puts Jacksonville as a 12-point favorite, so we’re looking at a few points worth of value here. The Jags offense hasn’t been stellar in the first two weeks, but its defense has been excellent.
Houston does not have a lot going for it on either side of the ball, but it’s a divisional game, so I wouldn’t be shocked if this game was closer. But I’ll follow my numbers and press the Jaguars.
Philadelphia at Tampa Bay +4.5
I don’t know about you, but the Eagles haven’t looked like last year’s squad. At least not yet. So while they still figure things out, I’ll take the home dogs and Baker Mayfield.
Not sure what it says about me, but I love Baker. Big fan of his since college. He’s been one of the best QBs so far this season. I know, I know. It’s only been two weeks, but he’s been sharp, and I’ll have to pay to see a classic Baker clunker.
The Bucs have been better on offense than the Eagles, but Philly’s defense has outshined Tampa Bay in the first two weeks. While I have the Eagles rated higher, it’s not 4.5 points higher, so I’ll be backing the Bucs on MNF.
Stat of the week
One of the most profitable betting angles in recent years is when two winless teams square off in Week 3. The underdog is 12-4 (75%) since 2014 and 5-0 in the last three seasons. So who qualifies for this play in 2023?
Los Angeles Chargers at Minnesota Vikings +1.5
These teams seem evenly matched on paper. The Chargers have no defense, so that should bode well for Kirk Cousins and Co.
I’m also not a believer in Justin Herbert. The kid can sling it, no doubt, but I’m not sold on his ability to second-handily win the Chargers a ball game.
My model put the Vikings as a 1-point favorite, so if I can get a few points in the bag with a favorable trend, I’ll bite.
Six plays this week, let’s see if we can get four of them home!