BAQ Sunday Stakes Previews
The Saturday card got moved to Sunday because of rain. Jim Gazzale previews four stakes races from Aqueduct as horses make their final preps ahead of the Breeders' Cup.
We’re five weeks out from Breeders’ Cup Friday. Those who are not “training up” to the world championships are putting in their final preps, including past winner Cody’s Wish (BC Dirt Mile).
G2 Vosburgh
Cody’s Wish returns to the sprint distance after trying nine furlongs in the Whitney last time out. He figures the one to beat in here, obviously. His last two tries at 7 furlongs have been some of his better efforts in the last year, defeating top company.
He really towers over this field.
The other Bill Mott trainee, High Oak, is interesting to me here. He ran a decent third in the G1 Forego last time out and has been steadily improving from a speed figure standpoint since the spring. Another step forward probably isn’t enough to beat Cody’s Wish, but High Oak is worth including, given the form cycle.
Accretive appears to be rounding into form as well as he’ll be making his third start this year. He figures to take a decent amount of money, given the connections.
Sheriff Bianco for Linda Rice and Jose Ortiz is certainly a horse-for-course play. He hasn’t ever finished worse than third in 11 career races at The Big A. He’ll also be making his third start in two weeks, which isn’t ideal.
Great Navigator is the most lightly raced in the field. That is appealing to me. He hasn’t been worse than third in any of his eight career tries. He hasn’t faced the stiffest of competition in the last year, but his last effort was the best of them all. If he has another step forward in him, he could be a factor.
G2 Gallant Bloom
Caramel Swirl looks like the one to beat on paper, so we’ll try to beat her. Especially at 1/1 on the morning line, I don’t think you can back her at this price, given the presence of a few others in here.
She won the Vagrancy over decent competition, but the Bed O’ Roses was really her chance to break through against the top end of this division.
In the Ballerina, she was up against it, as was Sterling Silver. The latter comes back in here with a decent chance, I think. Sterling Silver has a solid career record at BAQ (5-3-0-1), so should figure to be in the mix here.
Undervalued Asset for Chad Brown will take a fair bit of money here. She’s lightly raced compared to the others and has only run one poor race. She’s certainly a contender.
Beguine is interesting to me. She’ll go to the lead and try to take them all the way. Outside the Bed O’ Roses effort, she’s provided the most consistently high-speed figures in this field. The key for her will be the pace dynamics halfway through the race.
Can she get to the front, then conserve some energy to fend off Caramel Swirl, Sterling Silver, and Undervalued Asset down the stretch?
Beguine hasn’t beaten this level of competition, though her figures fit, and with a bit of a pace advantage, she certainly needs to be viewed as a contender.
I’ll be playing Sterling Silver over Beguine in an exacta.
G1 Turf Classic
Moved to next week.
G2 Woodward
This one is interesting to me because, on paper, I think most people would think Charge It is the best horse in the field. While that’s most likely true, it’s worth mentioning he’s never finished ahead of Zandon when the two have squared off.
That’s happened three times, most recently in the Whitney and the Met Mile. Now, Zandon can’t be trusted to win. He has a maiden victory and the G1 Blue Grass last year to his name, that’s it.
So, if Zandon suffers from seconditis, and he always finishes ahead of Charge It, do we need to look elsewhere?
A few others deserve a closer look. Two of Law Professor’s best races have come at this distance over this track. If you toss out his Pimlico Special, where he bobbled at the break, his recent form is certainly worth considering here.
Algiers is also worth consideration, as he’s represented himself rather well overseas. He hasn’t run since March, though, and shipping in from Meydan against some of the better older males in the US might be a tall task.
Film Star is the other one I’m intrigued by in the Woodward. Yes, he’s been knocking around with allowance company of late, but we know Linda Rice wins in bunches at Aqueduct. Film Star should go to the lead and control the pace. The question will be whether he has the stamina to kick away down the stretch. He didn’t need to show any sort of late pace last time out as he pulled away from the field with ease.
Two back at Saratoga, we saw the potential from Film Star as he took them all the way around, holding his foes at bay.
Charge It figures to be the class of this field. But at short odds, I’ll be looking to play a bit of Law Professor and Film Star.